The University of Florida’s Institute for Food and Agricultural Science (IFAS) has just released a report forcasting the future of Florida’s huge, citrus industry. A summary appears here, and the full report may be found at the UF Food and Resource Economics site. These projections are of crucial importance to agricultural counties like ours (Indian River County, of “Indian River Grapefruit” fame). Thanks to Dr. Richard Baker, President of Pelican Island Audubon Society, for passing this along.
LAKELAND – Citrus canker and greening will reduce the volume of fruit produced in Florida over the next 15 years, and the state may never return to the level of fruit harvested in 2003 before hurricanes spread canker around the state, according to a new University of Florida report.
“In addition to these disease problems, rising land values will affect the willingness of investors to commit capital to citrus production in Florida, and we expect that orange and grapefruit production will decline before it begins to rebound,†said Tom Spreen, a professor with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.
“However, growing world demand for Florida’s high quality citrus is expected to help boost prices at all levels – ranging from growers to juice processors and consumers. In other words, higher prices should offset lower production volume,†he said.
These are some of the forecasts in the report – “An Economic Assessment of the Future of the Florida Citrus Industry†– prepared by UF’s food and resource economics department. Spreen, chairman of the department, presented the 166-page report to the Florida Department of Citrus today (March 23).
He said canker and greening will affect citrus producers in different ways so the economic impacts of the two diseases must be measured separately.
“Industry response to suppress citrus canker and greening will increase production costs in the near term,†he said. “These diseases will also affect revenues through decreased fruit yields and pack-out in fresh-fruit operations – eroding the overall profitability of the industry.â€
Because of canker, 62 percent of the nursery trees in the state have been destroyed, severely limiting the acreage in groves that can be replanted over the next three years, Spreen said. The presence of canker and greening will also require new greenhouse investments and management systems to ensure disease-free nursery trees.
Citrus canker attacks the fruit and leaves of a citrus tree, resulting in increased premature fruit drop. The bacterial disease affects the external appearance of fruit grown for the fresh market, and the disease may open pathways for other pest problems, resulting in increased tree mortality. Spreen said it is likely that citrus canker will have more profound effects on fresh fruit producers compared to the processing segment of the industry.
Citrus greening, a more worrisome threat than canker, is already widespread in Asia, where little citrus is now produced. Considering the fact that the Asian citrus psyllid, which spreads the disease, is already present throughout Florida, it is likely that greening will eventually affect many commercial citrus production areas of the state, Spreen said.
Greening results in increased tree mortality. It is more likely to attack young trees than older trees, and there are many questions regarding economically sound management practices with respect to greening, he said.
“It is crucial that answers be found to these questions because increased tree mortality rates have a detrimental effect on the ability of a business to survive and compete in the global market,†Spreen said. “We need to identify practices that suppress greening for the most economical production of citrus in Florida.â€
Because of Florida’s importance as a citrus producer, diseases that adversely affect production of various citrus varieties in the state will also affect prices. With the strong competition between Brazil and Florida in the world orange juice market, it is important to assess the supply response in both regions as they begin the process of managing citrus canker and citrus greening, Spreen said.
Analyses of the world market for orange juice and fresh and processed grapefruit were conducted to quantify the price effects of these diseases. This work was combined with grove-level analyses to assess the future profitability of citrus production in the state.
According to a separate agricultural land values report released in January by John Reynolds, a professor emeritus in the UF food and resource economics department, the price of Florida farmland increased by more than 80 percent between 2004 and 2005.
Spreen said increasing land prices have implications for all commodities grown in Florida, particularly citrus. Higher land prices mean higher investment costs for new grove development, he said.
“This factor – combined with increased costs of grove maintenance, lower yields and higher tree mortality associated with citrus canker and greening – will likely significantly increase the fruit price required to justify new grove development,†Spreen said.
“With the large number of bearing acres affected by the hurricanes in 2004 and 2005, along with groves that have been eradicated because of citrus canker, bearing citrus acreage in the state is down, pointing the way to smaller citrus crops in the future,†he said.
The new economic study also incorporated the effects of greening in Brazil, Florida’s main competitor in the world orange juice market. Citrus greening has been present in the state of Sao Paulo for two years and has spread to most of its commercial citrus production area.
Spreen said citrus production continues to be an important part of Florida agriculture and the state’s overall economy. A study based upon the 1999-2000 season provided an estimate that the total economic impact of citrus in Florida was nearly $9.3 billion, and this study was updated to reflect the 2003-04 season. The study also includes detailed projections on the future economic outlook for the industry as it begins an aggressive program to manage canker and greening.